Eagle Alpha: Alternative Data Report 2024

We are proud to be featured in Eagle Alpha’s 2024 Alternative Data Report, which highlights the latest trends, use cases, and innovations shaping the alternative data landscape. Our contribution focuses on how unstructured data can provide actionable insights in the commodities sector, with a spotlight on copper.

Below, you’ll find an excerpt from the report showcasing our approach to unlocking value from alternative data for businesses worldwide.

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Copper: Tracking Highs and Lows in 2024
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Copper’s journey through 2024 was a rollercoaster of highs and lows, shaped by global demand, corporate shake-ups, and shifts in geopolitical landscapes. As one of the most critical metals for modern industries and the green energy transition, copper’s price movements in 2024 revealed the commodity’s sensitivity to external events.

This article documents tracking copper’s journey in 2024, in an overview of significant events shaping the global Copper market. This analysis is based on Semantic Visions’  proprietary data, gathered from various OSINT sources, specifically news outlets and blogs.
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Description of significant events:

1.

JAN 2024

Strategic Acquisitions

Barrick Gold’s potential takeover and Pacific Ridge’s acquisition of the RDP project reflected growing investments in copper, driving prices higher with expectations of a 75% rise over two years.  

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2.

JAN 2024

Sustainable Energy Push
As renewable energy initiatives ramped up in countries like India, copper demand surged. Investors saw copper as a cornerstone of future infrastructure, and prices responded with an upward climb.

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3.

FEB 2024

Confidence in Global Trade

A U.S.-backed sales contract for Congolese copper bolstered supply chain confidence, further supporting prices amid trade stability.

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4.

FEB 2024

Geopolitical Risks

First Quantum Minerals’ arbitration over the Panama mine shutdown raised concerns about supply disruptions, intensifying market volatility as demand surged.

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5.

MAR 2024

Big Investments in Copper Production

Adani announced a $1.2 bn project to build a copper plant in India, making a statement about copper’s growing strategic role. Markets reacted positively, with prices climbing higher on expectations of sustained demand growth.

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6.

APR 2024

Sanctions and Supply Concerns
Sanctions on Russian copper sparked initial supply fears and price surges, though markets later adjusted.

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7.

APR 2024

Mining Sector Consolidation

BHP’s $39 billion bid for Anglo American highlighted tightening supply and growing demand, driving prices to new highs.

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8.

MAY 2024

Significant Expansion Plans

Solaris Resources announced expansions to address the global copper deficit, aiming to enhance supply chain resilience.

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9.

MAY 2024

(Early) Signs of Trouble: Corporate Restructuring

Anglo American’s copper-focused restructuring was initially bullish but raised long-term market uncertainties. Investors began questioning whether the market had run too far ahead of itself.

=  Market Turns  =

10.

JUN 2024

Corporate Restructuring and Bankruptcy

Nevada Copper’s Chapter 11 bankruptcy signaled financial vulnerabilities, softening prices as investor sentiment turned cautious.

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11.

JUL 2024

Crash: A Perfect Storm

July brought the most dramatic moment of the year—a 20% price plunge in record time, driven by multiple factors: an oversupply problem, a weakening industrial demand, particularly in China, and speculative positions, built up earlier, were quickly unwound.

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12.

AUG  2024

Strike Disrupts World’s Largest Copper Mine

A strike at Chile’s Escondida mine raised supply chain concerns, though prices remained stable.  

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13.

SEP 2024

Economic Concerns and Delayed Recovery

Goldman Sachs slashed its copper price forecast, citing slower-than-expected recovery in China. With demand looking weaker, prices remained under pressure.

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14.

OCT 2024

Supply from Recycling
China announced plans to ease restrictions on recycled copper imports starting in November. The move was expected to increase secondary supply, reducing reliance on mined copper, with markets anticipating a loosening of supply constraints.

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15.

NOV 2024

New Expansions, Consolidation and Sustainability Initiatives

QC Copper’s Cuprum Corp. acquisition and Rio Tinto’s solar project in Utah reflected consolidation and sustainability efforts, alongside Aurubis AG’s €40 million air separation plant investment.

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Summary of 2024:

Copper’s 2024 journey has been characterized by big swings, driven by a mix of optimism and fear, reminding investors of its dual nature: it’s both a critical industrial metal and a highly speculative asset.

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The key takeaway is clear— the importance of staying informed about the market dynamics and the impacting external events.

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Positive vs. negative Scenarios, Jan-Nov  2024

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Copper price outlook

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Copper, an indispensable industrial metal, will retain its position in power generation and transmission.

On the one hand, the push to clean energy will continue to drive significant demand growth; on the other, market stability can be impacted by potential supply shortages, as seen throughout 2024. The answer to the price volatility and unsteady market could lie in investing in new mining projects and boost for recycling efforts. Also, copper prices saw the biggest drop as Trump’s win boosted the dollar, despite the trade policies of the upcoming administration keeping sentiment restrained.

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Source: https://www.eaglealpha.com/2024/12/17/eagle-alphas-annual-alternative-data-report-2024/

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